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# Bank of Canada’s Rogers Speech Pivots on Rate Hike Bets
- URL: https://www.theglobalbanker.com/bank-of-canadas-rogers-speech-pivots-on-rate-hike-bets/
- Published: 2026-03-24T15:32:22.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-24T12:30:55.000Z
- Description: Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers’ address on Thursday could validate or deflate traders’ bets on 2026 rate hikes, as inflation fears and market shifts intensify. Expectations have swung sharply in recent weeks.
- Author: TGB Editorial Team
- Tags: Central Banks, Americas

OTTAWA — Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers steps into a high-stakes spotlight Thursday with a speech that could either anchor or upend market bets for interest-rate increases in 2026\. Traders had shifted to price in interest-rate increases later in 2026 amid a rapid turn in expectations.

Rogers, a former Secretary General of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, has been the Bank's Senior Deputy Governor since December 2021\. Her remarks before the Brandon Chamber of Commerce in Brandon, Manitoba, on March 26 come eight days after the Bank’s March 18 rate decision.

#### MARKET EXPECTATIONS FLIP RAPIDLY

The rapid turn in rate expectations followed the surge in oil prices triggered by the war in Iran. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers discussed the March 18, 2026 monetary policy decision, where Governing Council maintained the policy interest rate at 2.25%.

Overnight index swaps signal expectations for tightening, reflecting concerns over inflation amid heightened uncertainty related to US trade policy and geopolitical risks, including the war in Iran pushing oil prices sharply higher. Rogers’ speech, on economic developments, monetary policy and affordability, is expected to address these dynamics.

#### INFLATION CONCERNS ELEVATE STAKES

Inflation in Canada has been close to the 2% target for more than a year, but the war in Iran is causing oil prices to move sharply higher and this will push up inflation in the short term. Macklem reiterated at the March 18 press conference following the monetary policy decision that the economy faces heightened uncertainty. Rogers joined the Bank’s Governing Council as Senior Deputy Governor in December 2021.

Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside because of the sharp increase in energy prices. The review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement adds uncertainty.

#### FINANCIAL CONDITIONS TIGHTEN

Macklem said on March 18 that financial conditions had already tightened, with global bond yields higher, stock markets lower and credit spreads wider. He said Governing Council would look through the war’s immediate impact on inflation, but if energy prices stay high, it would not let their effects broaden and become persistent inflation.

#### GLOBAL CONTEXT SHAPES OUTLOOK

Like its peers, the Bank of Canada faces economic weakness combined with rising inflation. Higher oil prices would boost income from energy exports but also squeeze consumers, Macklem said. As Macklem put it on March 18, economic weakness combined with rising inflation is a dilemma for central banks. Raising interest rates to slow inflation could further weaken the economy. Easing interest rates to support growth risks pushing inflation well above target. Canada’s outlook is further complicated by structural change—shifting trade relationships, the adoption of AI, and changes in demographics. The Bank is committed to ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.