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# ECB Wage Tracker Signals Easing Pressures to 2.3% in 2026
- URL: https://www.theglobalbanker.com/ecb-wage-tracker-signals-easing-pressures-to-2-3-in-2026/
- Published: 2026-03-23T12:34:49.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-01T21:28:08.000Z
- Description: The ECB's latest wage tracker shows negotiated wage growth with smoothed one-off payments at 3.2% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026, with forward-looking data stabilizing around 2.6% by year-end. The tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments shows 3.0% for 2025 and 2.6% for 2026.
- Author: TGB Editorial Team
- Tags: Central Banks, Europe

The European Central Bank's updated wage tracker indicates negotiated wage growth, with smoothed one-off payments, of 3.2% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026\. The tracker has been updated with wage agreements signed up to end-February 2026.

#### KEY WAGE TRACKER METRICS

The ECB's headline wage tracker, designed to capture quarterly and monthly trends by smoothing one-off payments, covers active collective bargaining agreements across participating countries. For 2025, it stands at 3.2%, reflecting employee coverage of 50.7%. The 2026 figure drops to 2.3%, with coverage at 39.7%; coverage gradually declines over the forward-looking horizon as agreements are still being signed in 2026\. "Available forward-looking information indicates negotiated wage growth will stabilise at around 2.6% by the end of 2026," the ECB stated in its March 23 release.

Quarterly figures for 2026 rise gradually through the year: the headline indicator averages 1.9% in Q1, 2.1% in Q2, 2.5% in Q3, and 2.6% in Q4\. This uptick later in the year stems largely from "statistical effects related to the treatment of earlier one-off payments rather than new wage pressures," according to the ECB, with these mechanical influences set to fade.

Alternative measures reinforce the cooling trend. The tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments shows 3.0% for 2025 and 2.6% for 2026, revised down 0.1 percentage points from February's data. Excluding one-offs entirely, growth eases from 3.9% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026\. Quarterly averages here are steadier: 2.9% in Q1, 2.6% in Q2, 2.4% in Q3, and 2.5% in Q4 for the unsmoothed version, and around 2.6% when stripping out one-offs, averaging 2.7% in Q1, 2.6% in Q2, 2.5% in Q3, and 2.6% in Q4.

Employee coverage for 2026 stands at 44.1% in Q1, 41.3% in Q2, 37.1% in Q3 and 36.3% in Q4\. The headline indicator compares with a 2013-2024 average of 2.2% and a reading of 4.7% in Q1 2025.

#### MONETARY POLICY IMPLICATIONS

The ECB said the tracker excluding one-off payments suggests more moderate dynamics in negotiated base wages than in previous years. It noted that negotiated wages are only one component of labour costs; its March 2026 staff projections indicate compensation per employee growth of 3.4% in 2026.

#### FORWARD-LOOKING HORIZON

Coverage dips reflect ongoing negotiations, but the ECB notes the tracker's forward-looking horizon remains unchanged at end-December 2026.

#### LABOR MARKET CONTEXT

Coverage varies widely by country: in 2025 it ranged from 14.2% in Greece to 78.3% in Austria, against 45.7% in Germany and 55.7% in France.

"ECB wage tracker continues to suggest negotiated wage pressures easing in 2026," the headline of the ECB release read, with the 2026 figure revised down by 0.1 percentage points. 

The ECB cautioned that the tracker may be subject to revision and that its forward-looking component should not be interpreted as a forecast.

#### NEXT UPDATE

The ECB said the forward-looking horizon will be extended to the first quarter of 2027 in the July 2026 data release.