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# New Zealand central bank warns persistent oil rise could lift inflation
- URL: https://www.theglobalbanker.com/new-zealand-central-bank-warned-persistent-oil-rise-could-lift-inflation/
- Published: 2026-09-23T11:16:42.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-02T01:31:39.000Z
- Description: Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor Anna Breman said persistently higher oil prices could lift near-term inflation above September forecasts before the bank’s next rate decision on 28 October.
- Author: TGB Editorial Team
- Tags: Central Banks, Asia-Pacific

Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor Anna Breman warned that persistently higher global oil prices could lift near-term inflation above the central bank’s September forecast. She said longer-term interest rates and the oil increase reflected a challenging global environment. The comments were issued during a regional visit to Dunedin ahead of the bank’s next monetary-policy decision on 28 October.

The RBNZ raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% at its September meeting. It projected a more gradual path for further tightening than financial markets had expected. The bank forecast that annual consumer-price inflation would ease to 3.9% in the September quarter from 4.1% previously.

#### RECOVERY REMAINS UNEVEN

Breman said New Zealand’s economic recovery should strengthen and broaden, supported by resilient exports and a gradual increase in household spending. The latest quarterly data showed gross domestic product grew by 0.2% in the three months to June.

Breman said the recovery was advancing but not uniformly, with the South Island faring better than most, supported by resilient export activity, lower unemployment and a stronger housing market.

#### OCTOBER DECISION DEPENDS ON DATA

The governor said the bank would assess incoming data and global developments before its October decision while maintaining a medium-term focus on inflation. Reuters reported that market pricing implied a 75% probability of another increase, which would take the official cash rate to 3%.

September-quarter consumer-price data, due on 21 October, will be published a week before the decision.