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# Sveriges Riksbank holds policy rate at 2.25% and expects it to stay at that level
- URL: https://www.theglobalbanker.com/sveriges-riksbank-holds-policy-rate-at-2-25-and-expects-it-to-stay-at-that-level/
- Published: 2025-03-20T09:00:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-29T12:17:16.000Z
- Description: Sweden's central bank left its policy rate unchanged on 20 March 2025, saying higher-than-expected inflation was temporary and that its rate forecast was unchanged since December.
- Author: TGB Editorial Team
- Tags: Central Banks, Europe, #archive

Sveriges Riksbank on 20 March 2025 left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25 per cent, with its Executive Board saying that the outlook for inflation and economic activity in Sweden remained largely intact despite substantial global turbulence. The decision applies from 26 March 2025.

The Riksbank said its forecast for the policy rate was unchanged since December, which means that “the policy rate is expected to remain at the current level”. Its forecasts show the rate averaging 2.3 per cent in each year from 2025 to 2027\. The central bank said it was monitoring developments closely and would act if the outlook for inflation and economic activity required it.

#### INFLATION ABOVE EXPECTATIONS

The Riksbank said CPIF inflation had become higher than expected and was assessed to remain between 2 and 3 per cent for the rest of 2025, mainly because of an unusually large contribution from the CPI basket effect and rapid increases in certain food prices. It forecast CPIF inflation of 2.5 per cent in 2025, up from 2.0 per cent in its December assessment, and 1.9 per cent in 2026.

The central bank judged the upturn in inflation at the start of the year to be temporary, and said a more normal basket effect, smaller food price increases, a stronger krona and stable inflation expectations would help inflation stabilise close to 2 per cent in 2026\. The Executive Board said it was vigilant regarding contagion effects that could prevent inflation from falling back as expected.

#### RECOVERY UNDER WAY

The Riksbank said the Swedish economy was in a recovery phase but that the rebound in the labour market would take a little longer. It forecast GDP growth of 1.9 per cent in 2025 and 2.4 per cent in 2026, with unemployment of 8.7 per cent in 2025\. It cited trade policy changes and higher European defence spending as key global developments since its January meeting, and said uncertainty abroad was unusually high because of the escalating trade conflict and the changed security situation.