ABN AMRO revised its forecast for euro-denominated ESG bond issuance in 2025 downward to EUR 247 billion from an earlier projection of EUR 266 billion, the Dutch bank said in its ESG issuance outlook published on 21 July 2025. The bank linked the revision to a surge in negative ESG-related news in the first half, and cut its forecasts in all three segments: by EUR 12.4 billion for corporates, mainly on weaker utility issuance; by EUR 4 billion for financial institutions, reflecting lower ESG-labelled senior non-preferred issuance in the second quarter; and by EUR 3 billion for sovereigns and the EU, on lower NextGenerationEU green issuance.
Euro-denominated ESG bond issuance in the first half of 2025 reached EUR 147 billion. Achieving EUR 247 billion by year-end would require approximately EUR 100 billion of supply in the second half — a slower pace than in the first half.
GREEN BONDS' SHARE OF ISSUANCE
Green bonds retained the largest share of the ESG issuance mix in the first half of 2025, accounting for 83% of total ESG-labelled supply. Social bonds represented 7% of issuance, sustainability bonds 3%, and sustainability-linked bonds 7%.
By issuer type, corporates led with 41% of first-half 2025 ESG issuance, followed by financial institutions at 29% and sovereigns and EU institutions also at 29%. Financial institution volumes were constrained in part by the underperformance of ESG-labelled senior non-preferred bonds, a product category whose ESG share fell mainly because banks issued more non-ESG senior non-preferred debt; ABN AMRO noted that ESG-labelled volumes were similar to a year earlier and that corporates, not financials, were the issuers hit by negative sentiment.
ABN AMRO BROADENS ITS OWN ESG FRAMEWORK
The bank first entered the green bond market in 2015 and in February 2025 became the first financial institution in Europe to issue a European Green Bond (EuGB) under the EU's official standard. Those EuGB-format bonds are subject to stricter use-of-proceeds requirements, transparency obligations, and post-issuance reporting standards than conventional green bonds.
The surge in negative media coverage around US energy policy, oil majors scaling back renewables, US banks leaving the Net-Zero Banking Alliance and the EU's Omnibus simplification proposals led ABN AMRO's analysts to lower the original forecast.
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