The Bank of Russia's Board of Directors cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 14.00% per annum on 24 July 2026, extending the easing cycle it began in June 2025. The new rate takes effect from 27 July, the central bank said.
Under its baseline scenario the Bank of Russia expects annual inflation of between 6.0% and 7.0% in 2026, before returning to the 4.0% target in 2027. The Board said the economy as a whole grew at a moderate pace in the second quarter of 2026, although it cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.0–1.0%.
GRADUAL EASING PATH
The quarter-point move extends the easing cycle that began in June 2025, when the key rate stood at its 21% peak. The Board said that, given the direct and second-round effects of the temporary decline in production capacities in certain sectors and a more expansionary fiscal policy than projected in April, a smoother key rate decrease was required.
The statement said current price growth sped up in June and July, and annual inflation stood at 5.9% as of 20 July. The Bank of Russia said it would make further key rate decisions based on the dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations as well as the analysis of risks posed by domestic and external conditions.
The Bank of Russia assessed monetary conditions as moderately tight, noting that they had eased somewhat in real terms given rising inflation expectations.
GROWTH AND INFLATION OUTLOOK
The Bank of Russia said the economy grew moderately in the second quarter of 2026 but that businesses' expectations of future demand and output had dropped, which it said may indicate a slowdown in consumption growth in the second half of 2026.
The baseline scenario assumes the key rate will average 14.5–14.6% in 2026 and 10.5–12.5% in 2027.
The Board's next key rate meeting is scheduled for 11 September.
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