Czech National Bank holds two-week repo rate at 3.75% in August after June hike

The Czech National Bank held its key two-week repo rate at 3.75% on Thursday, pausing after delivering the first interest-rate rise since 2022 at its previous meeting. All seven Bank Board members voted in favour of the decision.

Alongside the main rate, the discount rate was left at 2.75% and the Lombard rate at 4.75%, keeping the standard corridor around the two-week repo rate unchanged. The Bank Board said the rate increase at the previous meeting had brought about the desired tightening of monetary conditions.

PAUSE AFTER JUNE HIKE

At the June meeting the Bank Board raised the two-week repo rate by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75%, its first rate rise since 2022. The main strategy now is a period of assessing new data, the outlook, inflationary risks and the effect of monetary policy restriction, the Bank Board said.

The Bank Board said core inflation has remained elevated at just below 3% for eight months without showing a significant downward tendency, while headline inflation has been close to the 2% target since January 2024. It said it will base its decisions at its meetings ahead on an assessment of newly available data and will consider further actions very carefully.

Its considerations about interest rate settings will depend mainly on the persistence of the low-inflation environment, koruna exchange rate developments, the effect of fiscal policy on the economy, labour market tightness and changes in domestic and external demand.

CORRIDOR LEFT UNCHANGED

Leaving the discount rate at 2.75% and the Lombard rate at 4.75% keeps the standard 100 basis point spread on either side of the two-week repo rate.

According to the Monetary Department's new forecast, inflation will average 2% this year and 2.5% next year, while the GDP growth outlook for this year has been lowered from 2.5% to 2.2%, with growth of 2.7% expected next year.

The Bank Board assessed the risks to the inflation outlook as inflationary overall, citing above all the persistence of core inflation, reflected in elevated services inflation, including housing prices. The decision was accompanied by the Monetary Department's new forecast, and the minutes of the meeting will be published on the central bank's website.