The European Central Bank’s wage tracker, published on 16 September, indicated negotiated wage growth of 2.7% in the first half of 2027, based on coverage of 28.8% of employees, with 2.7% in the first quarter and 2.8% in the second. The tracker compiles information from collective-bargaining agreements across nine participating euro-area countries. It provides forward-looking information on negotiated wage pressures from active collective bargaining agreements. Coverage falls for more distant quarters because fewer agreements have been finalised. The estimates can therefore change as new settlements enter the dataset.
LOWER COVERAGE LIMITS THE SIGNAL
Reuters described the update as pointing to a modest increase in negotiated wage growth. The ECB wage tracker with smoothed one-off payments for 2026 stood at 2.2%, with coverage of 46.9%. The 2026 figure was revised down slightly from the July 2026 release.
The 28.8% coverage for the first half of 2027 leaves a substantial portion of future settlements unknown. New agreements could revise the path higher or lower. The ECB said the forward-looking component should not be interpreted as a forecast.
BROADER WAGE PICTURE
For a more comprehensive assessment, the ECB pointed to its September 2026 staff projections, which indicate compensation-per-employee growth of 3.3% in 2026. The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments moderated from 3.0% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026.
The ECB said the forward-looking horizon would be extended to the third quarter of 2027 in the November 2026 release and to the full year 2027 in the December 2026 release.
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