Investec forecast higher first-half earnings as growth in Southern Africa countered weaker UK performance. The group expects adjusted earnings per share of 41.7p to 43.3p for the six months ending 30 September 2026, 3% to 7% above the prior period. Headline earnings per share are expected at 38.1p to 39.7p, up 4% to 8%. Investec said the outcome should remain in line with guidance issued in May.
The scheduled pre-close update is based on five months of performance through 31 August and a forecast for September. Investec projected pre-provision adjusted operating profit of £531.4 million to £548.4 million, 1% to 4% higher than a year earlier. Adjusted operating profit before tax is expected at £479.2 million to £496.2 million, compared with £468.1 million in the prior period. The underlying financial information has not been reviewed by the group’s external auditors.
SOUTHERN AFRICA LEADS GROWTH
The Southern African business is expected to increase adjusted operating profit by as much as 6% in rand terms and 14% in sterling. Its Specialist Bank is forecast to lift adjusted operating profit by up to 4% in rand and 14% in sterling. Investec expects Southern African return on equity of 18.5% to 19.0%, near the top of its guided range, while the credit-loss ratio should remain below the 15-to-35-basis-point through-the-cycle range.
Core specialist-banking loans reached £37.0 billion at the end of August, from £35.5 billion at the end of March, helped by rand appreciation and growth across private-client and corporate lending. Customer deposits rose to £46.0 billion. Funds under management in Southern African Wealth increased 13.8% to £30.7 billion, supported by R10.7 billion of discretionary and annuity inflows and R18.9 billion of non-discretionary inflows.
UK BUSINESS TEMPERS THE OUTLOOK
Investec expects adjusted operating profit from its UK business, including its Rathbones interest, to fall 2% to 6% from the prior period. The UK Specialist Bank is forecast to decline 3% to 7%, with return on tangible equity of 12.3% to 12.7%. Group return on equity is forecast at 13.1% to 13.5%, while group return on tangible equity should be 15.0% to 15.5%.
Revenue benefited from stronger activity, higher average advances and positive fund inflows, while lower average interest rates and competitive margin pressure limited the gain. Investec said overall credit quality remained sound and expects the group credit-loss ratio within its 25-to-45-basis-point range. The group is scheduled to release its interim results on 19 November 2026.