Banco Central do Brasil Holds Selic at 15.00% for Fifth Meeting, Signals March Easing

Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee, known as Copom, held the Selic rate at 15.00% at its January 2026 meeting, leaving the benchmark rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive decision. The committee signalled, however, that, if its expected scenario is confirmed, it anticipates beginning to ease policy at its next meeting in March 2026.

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

Inflation expectations for 2026 stood at 4.0% at the time of the January meeting, according to market surveys tracked by the Copom. The committee flagged de-anchoring of expectations as an active concern.

MARKET REACTION

The hold was in line with expectations, but the statement's explicit signal that cuts could begin in March surprised markets, according to InfoMoney.