Banco Central do Brasil Holds Selic Rate at 15.00% for Third Consecutive Meeting

The Monetary Policy Committee of Banco Central do Brasil voted unanimously to hold the Selic rate unchanged at 15.00 per cent per annum at its November 2025 meeting, delivering a third consecutive hold following a seven-meeting tightening cycle. The decision was announced in a statement published on the central bank's website, which said that keeping the rate at its current level for a very prolonged period was sufficient to ensure inflation converges to the target.

ACTIVITY AND LABOUR MARKET

Copom said activity indicators continued to show the expected moderation in growth, while the labour market remained dynamic, and it described a scenario of unanchored inflation expectations, elevated inflation projections, resilient activity and labour-market pressures that requires a significantly contractionary policy for a very prolonged period.

IPCA FORECAST

The Copom's forecast for the IPCA consumer price index stood at 4.6 per cent for 2025, the bank said, above the official target centre. The committee said recent headline and underlying inflation had eased somewhat but remained above target, and stressed that it would not hesitate to resume the tightening cycle if it judged it appropriate.

Brazil's inflation targeting framework has been revised to operate on a continuous basis rather than requiring convergence within a specific calendar year, under which the target is formally missed only when 12-month inflation stays outside the tolerance band for six consecutive months, as happened in the first half of 2025. The 4.6 per cent forecast for 2025 is above the 4.5 per cent ceiling of the tolerance band; the committee's projection for the second quarter of 2027, its relevant horizon, was 3.3 per cent.