The Bank of Russia’s Board of Directors kept the key rate at 14.00% per annum on 11 September 2026, pausing an easing cycle in which it had lowered the rate at every meeting since June 2025.
The key rate stood at 21% before the cycle began. The central bank has since reduced it by a cumulative 700 basis points, most recently with 25-basis-point cuts in June and July 2026.
PRICE PRESSURES INCREASE
The Bank of Russia said current price pressures had increased significantly in recent months. Seasonally adjusted price growth reached 11.6% in annualised terms in July, compared with an average of 5.3% in the second quarter, while the equivalent core inflation measure rose to 7.0% from 4.6%. Annual inflation stood at 6.3% as of 7 September.
The central bank raised its estimate of underlying inflation to 5–6% in annualised terms, attributing the acceleration mainly to a temporary reduction in production capacities in certain sectors, and said higher motor fuel prices had also affected underlying price dynamics. It added that inflation expectations remained elevated, which could impede a sustained slowdown in inflation.
Proinflationary risks had increased and prevailed over disinflationary ones over the medium term, the Bank of Russia said. It also warned that if the government’s new medium-term budget projections assume a higher structural primary deficit, a tighter monetary policy stance than in its baseline scenario may be required.
NEXT DECISION ON 23 OCTOBER
Under its baseline scenario, annual inflation will be 6.0–7.0% in 2026, return to 4.0% in 2027 and stay on target thereafter. The central bank said further decisions would depend on the dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations and on its assessment of risks. The board’s next key rate meeting is scheduled for 23 October 2026, when the Bank of Russia will also publish its medium-term forecast.