Coverage: Q2 2026 · Information to 25 September 2026
TGB Premium Intelligence · Subscriber Edition
This report is part of TGB Premium Intelligence and is available by request to qualified institutions. It will not enter the open archive for at least twelve months.
Published: 25 September 2026 | Region: Sub-Saharan Africa | Country: Nigeria | Coverage: Q2 2026 (April–June 2026) | Classification: Premium Intelligence
Desk view — Nigeria, Q2 2026
- Policy has turned. The Central Bank of Nigeria reset the monetary policy rate to 23% on 22 September 2026, from the 26.5% held through the second quarter, and narrowed the corridor to +50/-300 basis points so that the policy rate sits closer to where money actually trades.
- The macro backdrop improved. Real GDP grew 4.43% year on year in Q2 2026, up from 3.89% in Q1, and headline inflation on the rebased index eased for three months running to 15.39% in August.
- Asset quality is the weak spot. With COVID-era forbearance withdrawn, the industry NPL ratio reached 9.94% at end-March 2026, almost twice the 5% prudential threshold, although the capital adequacy ratio rose to 13.19%.
- Recapitalisation is complete: 33 banks met the new minimum capital requirements by the 31 March 2026 deadline, raising ₦4.65 trillion.
- The results season has stalled. Only First HoldCo among the five largest groups has published H1 2026 accounts (profit before tax ₦653.5 billion, up 83.5%); Access Holdings, Zenith Bank, GTCO and UBA are awaiting CBN approval to release board-approved audited accounts.
Executive summary
Nigeria’s banking sector enters the second half of 2026 with a much larger capital base, a firmer economy and a regulator determined to make the new capital count. The recapitalisation programme closed on 31 March 2026 with 33 banks compliant and ₦4.65 trillion raised, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports real GDP growth of 4.43% in Q2 2026, up from 3.89% in Q1, and headline inflation on the rebased index of 15.91% in June.
Policy stayed tight through the quarter, with the monetary policy rate (MPR) held at 26.5% in May and July. In practice overnight money traded at the corridor floor: the Nigerian Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) sat at 22.00%, the deposit-facility rate. On 22 September the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) reset the MPR to 23% and narrowed the corridor; under the new corridor the standing deposit facility rate is 20%.
The weak point is asset quality. The withdrawal of pandemic-era forbearance pushed the industry non-performing loan (NPL) ratio to 9.94% at end-Q1 2026, from 7.51% at end-2025, even as the capital adequacy ratio rose to 13.19%. The same rigour shapes the reporting calendar: as of 25 September 2026, four of the five largest groups were awaiting CBN approval to publish audited H1 2026 accounts.