Coverage: Q2 2026 · Information to 25 September 2026
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Published: 25 September 2026 | Region: Europe | Country: Switzerland | Coverage: Q2 2026 (April–June 2026) | Classification: Premium Intelligence
Desk view — Switzerland, Q2 2026
- The Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate at 0% on 18 June and again on 24 September 2026; its last cut was in June 2025. It remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary.
- Growth surged. SECO reports sport-event-adjusted GDP up 1.5% quarter on quarter in Q2 2026, the strongest since Q3 2021, led by chemicals and pharmaceuticals.
- Capital regulation is the defining issue. On 22 April 2026 the Federal Council sent parliament its proposal for full CET1 backing of foreign subsidiaries. The government estimates the effect on UBS at about US$20 billion.
- UBS earned US$2.8 billion in Q2 2026 (+16.9%), with a 14.4% CET1 ratio, as the Credit Suisse integration neared completion.
- Domestic banks are well capitalised but under margin pressure at zero rates. The sector’s CET1 ratio reached 18.0% at end-2025. PostFinance’s first-half net interest income fell by CHF 34 million, largely because the prior-year figure included a CHF 37 million one-off gain, while Raiffeisen and ZKB grew profits.
Executive summary
Switzerland’s banks spent the second quarter of 2026 between two very different forces: an unusually strong economy and a policy debate over UBS’s capital framework. SECO’s estimates show sport-event-adjusted GDP growing 1.5% quarter on quarter in Q2, the fastest rate since the third quarter of 2021. The chemical and pharmaceutical industry expanded 10.5%, and goods exports rose 5.5%. Inflation remained low, at 0.6% in May, and the SNB held its policy rate at 0% on 18 June and again on 24 September.
Lower interest rates are weighing on the earnings of domestically focused banks. The SNB’s Financial Stability Report 2026 found that their profitability declined marginally in 2025 as interest margins narrowed. First-half 2026 results were mixed: Raiffeisen grew net profit 18.9% on higher interest and fee income, and Zürcher Kantonalbank 1.7%. PostFinance’s net interest income fell to CHF 285 million from CHF 319 million.
At the systemic level, the Federal Council adopted its dispatch on the revision of the Banking Act on 22 April 2026. Systemically important banks would have to back their participations in foreign subsidiaries fully with CET1 capital, phased in over seven years. The authorities estimate the effect on UBS at about US$20 billion of additional parent-bank CET1. UBS puts the combined effect with the ordinance changes at about US$22 billion and strongly disagrees with the package. Parliament is now deliberating: on 23 September 2026 the Council of States voted for 90% CET1 backing of foreign participations rather than the government’s 100%, and the bill now passes to the National Council. The outcome is the single most important variable for the Swiss banking market.