Coverage: Q2 2026 · Information to 25 September 2026
TGB Premium Intelligence · Subscriber Edition
This report is part of TGB Premium Intelligence and is available by request to qualified institutions. It will not enter the open archive for at least twelve months.
Published: 25 September 2026 | Region: Europe | Country: Turkey (Türkiye) | Coverage: Q2 2026 (April–June 2026) | Classification: Premium Intelligence
Desk view — Turkey, Q2 2026
- Nominal earnings are still rising, but the quarter turned. The sector earned TL 527.4 billion in H1 2026, up 24.8% year on year, yet Q2 profit of about TL 239 billion was roughly 17% below Q1 as funding costs rose after the March market shock.
- Monetary policy is tight and on hold. The one-week repo rate has been 37% since 22 January 2026; the central bank suspended repo auctions on 1 March and resumed them only on 23 August.
- Asset quality is deteriorating steadily from a low base. The sector NPL ratio rose to 2.77% at end-June 2026 from 2.12% a year earlier, and to 2.86% in July, led by unsecured retail and SME lending.
- Capital is adequate but thinner. With regulatory forbearance removed from 1 January 2026, the sector capital adequacy ratio stands at 16.59%, against 19.69% reported at end-2025.
- September brought a new test: a sharp equity sell-off linked to investment-fund redemptions prompted liquidity support from the central bank on 17 September and capital relief for bank share buy-backs from the regulator.
Executive summary
Turkey’s banks came through the second quarter of 2026 with rising nominal profits, a slowing economy and a monetary stance that stayed firmly restrictive. Real GDP grew 2.3% year on year in Q2 and 1.1% on the quarter. Annual consumer inflation was 32.11% in June, up from 30.89% at the end of 2025, after the geopolitical conflict that began in late February pushed energy prices higher. The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) cut its policy rate once, to 37% on 22 January, and has held it there at every meeting since, most recently on 10 September.
The unconsolidated banking sector, as reported by the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK), earned TL 527.4 billion in the first half, 24.8% more than a year earlier. Momentum faded during the quarter: Q2 profit of about TL 239 billion was roughly 17% lower than in Q1, as higher deposit costs, swap costs and loan-loss provisions absorbed the benefit of strong fee income. Total assets reached TL 52.7 trillion at the end of June, up 12.3% from the end of 2025, and loans TL 26.8 trillion, up 15.8%.
The pressure points are asset quality and capital. The sector’s non-performing loan (NPL) ratio rose to 2.77% in June from 2.47% at the end of 2025, and the stock of NPLs grew 81.5% in a year. The capital adequacy ratio was 16.59%, still comfortably above minimum requirements but well below the 19.69% reported at the end of 2025, before the BDDK withdrew the forbearance that had cushioned banks’ ratios against lira depreciation. Among the five largest lenders, Akbank, Yapı Kredi and Garanti BBVA grew first-half profit faster than the state-owned Ziraat Bankası, İş Bankası’s was flat, and all five reported a weaker second quarter than first.