TGB Annual Banking Outlook 2026: Fragmentation, Capital, and the Geopolitics of Finance
TGB Archive16 February 202624 min readBy TGB Editorial Team
Coverage: 2026 · Information to 16 February 2026
TGB Annual Banking Outlook · 16 February 2026
Banks enter 2026 with strong capital and a steady global economy, but policy rates, Basel III timetables, reserve holdings and payment rails are pulling apart, and official bodies now name geopolitics and fragmentation among the main risks to the system.
Subscribe to the Global Briefing
An executive summary of the developments that matter most in global banking, delivered to your inbox.