Fitch moves nine Nigerian banks and two holding companies to Positive outlook, affirms 'B'

Fitch Ratings has revised the outlooks of nine Nigerian banks and two bank holding companies to Positive from Stable and affirmed their Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'B'. The affected issuers are Access Bank, Zenith Bank, First HoldCo (FHC), First Bank of Nigeria (FBN), United Bank for Africa (UBA), Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GTCO), Guaranty Trust Bank (GTB), Fidelity Bank, First City Monument Bank (FCMB), Wema Bank and Bank of Industry (BOI).

The outlook revisions follow a similar action on Nigeria's 'B' Long-Term IDRs on 9 October 2026. Fitch said the sovereign move reflects ongoing reform of the policy framework and its increased confidence that momentum will not be disrupted by upcoming elections.

DIFFERENT DRIVERS BEHIND THE OUTLOOK CHANGES

For ten of the issuers, the revision reflects Fitch's view that the sovereign's credit profile and Nigeria's operating environment may become less of a constraint on standalone creditworthiness. The ten are Access Bank, Zenith Bank, FHC, FBN, UBA, GTCO, GTB, Fidelity Bank, FCMB and Wema Bank.

For FHC and FBN, the change is also supported by the two issuers having restored compliance with the total capital adequacy ratio requirement.

BOI's revision rests on Fitch's view that the government's ability to support the policy bank may improve. BOI's Long-Term IDR and Government Support Rating are equalised with Nigeria's Long-Term IDRs.

MACRO AND SECTOR BACKDROP IMPROVES

Fitch said Nigeria's operating environment is improving. The naira has appreciated about 7% in the first nine months of 2026 and the Central Bank of Nigeria continues to build gross international reserves, while Fitch forecasts real GDP growth of 4.3% in 2026.

Inflation increased at the onset of the Iran conflict but fell to 14.63% in September, which Fitch said supports a continued easing of monetary policy. The agency noted that the withdrawal of longstanding regulatory forbearance, primarily on the classification of problem loans, raised impaired loan ratios at end-2025.

Significant capital raisings to meet new paid-in capital requirements, effective from end-1Q26, cushioned that withdrawal and provide room for loan and business growth. "The banking sector has proved itself resilient to burdensome regulations, particularly the high cash reserve ratio (CRR) requirement of 45% for commercial banks," Fitch said.

UNCHANGED RATINGS AND SOVEREIGN CONSTRAINTS

The action did not change the National Ratings of any issuer, nor the Government Support Ratings of the eight commercial banks and two bank holding companies. Fitch notes that the government's ability to provide support is limited by its own creditworthiness, as indicated by its Long-Term IDR of 'B'.

Fitch said the Long-Term IDRs and Viability Ratings of Access Bank, Zenith Bank, FHC, FBN, UBA, GTCO, GTB, Fidelity Bank, FCMB and Wema Bank would be downgraded following a downgrade of Nigeria's Long-Term IDRs. It also said Nigeria does not publish consolidated fiscal data on a general government basis, which complicates its assessment of fiscal performance.

S&P'S EARLIER POSITIVE OUTLOOK ON NIGERIA

S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on Nigeria to positive from stable on 14 November 2025 and affirmed its 'B-/B' ratings. S&P said Nigeria's credit profile is demonstrating signs of improvement, underpinned by reforms undertaken since mid-2023. It also revised its outlook on UBA to positive from stable and affirmed the bank's 'B-/B' global scale ratings.