Coverage: Q4 2025 · Information to 26 March 2026

TGB Quarterly Thematic Intelligence Report · 26 March 2026

World trade outran the tariffs in 2025, but it was redirected rather than restored: by mid-October 2025 non-facilitating import measures covered 22.0% of G20 imports, US customs receipts have more than quadrupled, the trade finance gap is stuck at $2.5tn, and the Gulf corridor that boomed in the fourth quarter now faces a Middle East war that by 9 March had effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping.