Intelligence Report
Basel IV's Final Mile: Capital, Competitiveness and the New Geography of Bank Balance Sheets — TGB Premium Intelligence Q3 2026
About 75% of Basel Committee members have implemented, or will shortly implement, final Basel III, yet US proposals would cut large-bank CET1 requirements by 4.8% with stress-test changes, and the EU plans to soften its trading-book rules for three years from 2027.
Digital Banks vs. Incumbents: Who Is Winning the Retail Deposit War — TGB Intelligence Report Q1 2026
Monzo lifted deposits 48% to £16.6bn and Nubank 29% to $41.9bn, yet Lloyds alone holds £496.5bn. ECB analysis shows digital banks pay more for deposits and earn lower returns, while hedge income widened incumbent margins in 2025.
Geopolitics and Trade Finance: The Fragmentation of Cross-Border Commerce — TGB Intelligence Report Q4 2025
Non-facilitating import measures cover 22.0% of G20 imports and US customs receipts hit $90.0bn in October-December 2025, yet trade grew: the story is redirection, a $2.5tn trade finance gap and a Gulf corridor exposed to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Embedded Finance and the Unbundling of the Bank — TGB Intelligence Report Q4 2025
Businesses on Stripe generated $1.9 trillion of volume and PayPal $1.79 trillion in 2025, but the licence still matters: PayPal and Nu have sought US bank charters and Klarna funds 95% of its lending with deposits.
China's Banking Sector Under Pressure: Property, Debt, and Stability — TGB Intelligence Report Q3 2025
Commercial bank NPLs rose to 1.52% at end-September 2025 as property investment fell 15.9% in January–November and RMB4tn of special refinancing bonds, mostly used to repay bank loans, squeezed margins without yet threatening capital.
Basel IV Implementation: How the World's Banks Are Preparing — TGB Intelligence Report Q4 2025
Final Basel III credit risk rules and the output floor now apply in around 80% of Basel Committee jurisdictions, market risk rules in nearly 40%, while the EU and UK delay to 2027 and the US has no revised timeline.
The Correspondent Banking Retreat: De-Risking and Financial Exclusion — TGB Intelligence Report Q2 2025
Correspondent banking relationships fell by about 30% between 2011 and 2022, and by about 60% in the South Pacific, as profitability, compliance and sanctions risk drove the retreat; sending USD 200 cost 6.4% on average in early 2024.
African Banking's Capital Challenge: Frontier Markets at a Crossroads — TGB Intelligence Report Q1 2025
Nigeria's ₦500 billion floor for internationally authorised banks and Kenya's KSh10 billion core capital rule are driving bank capital raising, while Ghana's 22.6% NPL ratio and banks' 45.42% share of Kenyan domestic debt show the strain on balance sheets.
AI and Automation in Banking: From Pilot to Platform — TGB Intelligence Report Q4 2024
Three-quarters of UK financial firms already use AI and most EU bank AI projects have moved beyond pilots, but supervisors describe generative AI as still at an early stage. Supervisors are now focused on third-party concentration, opaque models and AI-enabled fraud.
Islamic Banking's Global Expansion: Growth Beyond the GCC — TGB Intelligence Report Q3 2024
Islamic banks held 45.6% of Malaysian financing and 23.2% of Pakistani deposits at end-2023, Indonesia's Islamic banking share rose to 7.44%, and IILM sukuk outstanding hit a highest-ever USD4 billion on 21 August 2024.
CBDC: Central Banks and the Future of Payment Infrastructure — TGB Intelligence Report Q2 2024
Nearly all central banks surveyed by the BIS were working on a CBDC at the end of 2023, yet only four retail CBDCs are live, and central banks now see a wholesale CBDC as more likely than a retail one within the next six years.