National Bank of Romania holds its policy rate at 6.50% as October inflation rises to 6.94%

The Board of the National Bank of Romania decided at its meeting on 12 November 2026 to keep the monetary policy rate at 6.50% per annum. The lending (Lombard) facility rate stays at 7.50% and the deposit facility rate at 5.50%.

The board also kept minimum reserve requirement ratios unchanged on both leu- and foreign currency-denominated liabilities of credit institutions. It said it took the decision on the basis of the currently available data and assessments, and in light of the high uncertainties.

INFLATION TURNS HIGHER AGAIN

Annual inflation went up to 6.61% in September from 6.17% in August, mainly because of significantly higher fuel and natural gas prices, the central bank said. In October it rose to 6.94%, largely on further increases in fuel prices and higher VFE prices, the bank said.

Over the third quarter as a whole, annual inflation had declined substantially from 10.42% in June, as the direct effects faded from the removal of the electricity price cap and the increases in VAT rates and excise duties in July and August 2025. Inflation measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices dropped to 7.0% in October from 9.2% in June.

Adjusted CORE2 inflation was unchanged at 6.2% in September, but had shed 2.1% from the end of the second quarter, the bank said.

A LONG HOLD AND A STALLED ECONOMY

The policy rate has been at 6.50% since August 2024. The central bank said new data reconfirm a standstill in economic activity in the second quarter of 2026, after a 0.1% contraction in the first quarter.

Compared with a year earlier, economic activity contracted 0.2% in the second quarter, against 1.2% in the first three months of the year. The bank said the latest data point to a moderate recovery in the second half of 2026, helped by a sizeable contribution from agriculture, and the ILO unemployment rate fell back to 6.4% in the third quarter from an average of 6.8% in the second.

CREDIT AND MARKETS

Annual growth in credit to the private sector held steady at 8.2% in September, with the leu-denominated component extending its slow uptrend. The domestic currency share of private-sector credit remained at 66.8%.

Medium- and long-term government bond yields reversed much of September's rise in the first half of October but then stopped falling, staying visibly above their levels in July and August as the Middle East conflict escalated and global risk aversion rose again, the bank said. It added that it stands ready to use the tools at its disposal to achieve medium-term price stability while safeguarding financial stability, and repeated that a balanced macroeconomic policy mix and structural reforms, also using EU funds, are essential.

THE TGB VIEW

Romania's policy rate of 6.50%, unchanged since August 2024, is below October's annual inflation rate of 6.94%. Private-sector credit grew 8.2% a year in September, while economic activity stalled in the second quarter. The board's next monetary policy meeting is on 19 January 2027.