South African Reserve Bank Holds Repo Rate at 7.50% as Global Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on Outlook

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) held its benchmark repo rate at 7.50% at the March 2025 meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), citing heightened global uncertainty, particularly relating to US tariff policy. The decision to hold was backed by four of the six MPC members, with two preferring a 25 basis point cut.

Governor Lesetja Kganyago said the global economy was not on a stable footing and that domestic uncertainties also put recent favourable trends at risk, calling for a cautious policy approach.

US TARIFF RISKS

The MPC specifically identified global uncertainty stemming from US tariff developments as an elevated risk to the South African economic outlook.

The SARB's inflation target band is 3%–6%.

INFLATION AND FORECASTS

Headline inflation was 3.2% in February, below the 4.5% midpoint of the target band, and the SARB lowered its inflation forecast to 3.6% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026, but judged the medium-term balance of risks to be skewed to the upside.

The SARB publishes its monetary policy statement following each MPC gathering, setting out the committee's reasoning and the rate outcome.