Coverage: Q2 2025 · Information to 26 September 2025
Originally Published as TGB Premium Intelligence
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TGB Quarterly Regional Banking Monitor · 26 September 2025
Most European central banks eased between April and September 2025, while ECB-supervised banks lifted their CET1 ratio to 16.12% and annualised return on equity to 10.11% in the second quarter even as net interest margins narrowed.
The desk view
European monetary policy moved towards easing in the second and third quarters of 2025, though at different speeds. The ECB cut twice to a 2.00% deposit rate and then held, the Bank of England cut to 4%, and the Swiss National Bank reached 0%, while Turkey's central bank first raised its policy rate to 46%. Banks entered this phase with strong buffers: the aggregate CET1 ratio of ECB-supervised banks was 16.12% and EU/EEA return on equity 10.7% in the second quarter. The pressure point is income. The EBA reported a net interest margin of 1.58%, down from 1.68% a year earlier, while the cost of risk fell to 48bp. The 2025 stress tests showed aggregate resilience but wide dispersion between banks.
The regional picture
Monetary policy across Europe moved in one direction for most of the period, but at different speeds and from very different starting points. The ECB lowered its three key rates by 25bp on 17 April and again on 5 June 2025, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.00% from 11 June, and then left rates unchanged on 24 July and 11 September. The Bank of England cut Bank Rate to 4.25% at its meeting ending on 7 May 2025 and to 4% at its meeting ending on 6 August 2025, both times by a 5–4 vote. The Swiss National Bank lowered its policy rate to 0% on 19 June 2025. The Riksbank cut to 2% on 18 June and to 1.75% on 23 September 2025, and Norges Bank reduced its rate from 4.5% to 4.25% in June and to 4% in September.
In central Europe, the Czech National Bank cut its two-week repo rate to 3.50% on 7 May 2025 and held it there on 24 September, while the Magyar Nemzeti Bank kept its base rate at 6.50% on 23 September. Turkey moved the other way at the start of the quarter: the central bank raised its one-week repo rate from 42.5% to 46% on 17 April 2025 and held it at 46% on 19 June, before cutting it to 43% on 24 July and to 40.5% on 11 September. The ECB's own guidance stayed non-committal: in September the Governing Council said it was not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
Policy rate decisions in Europe, April to September 2025
| Central bank | Selected decisions in the period | Rate set at last decision on or before 25 September 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| ECB (deposit facility) | Cut to 2.25% (17 April); cut to 2.00% (5 June); held (24 July, 11 September) | 2.00% |
| Bank of England | Cut to 4.25% (May); held (June); cut to 4% (August); held (September) | 4% |
| Swiss National Bank | Cut to 0% (19 June); held (25 September) | 0% |
| Sveriges Riksbank | Cut to 2% (18 June); held (20 August); cut to 1.75% (23 September) | 1.75% |
| Norges Bank | Cut to 4.25% (June); cut to 4% (September) | 4% |
| Czech National Bank | Cut to 3.50% (7 May); held (24 September) | 3.50% |
| Magyar Nemzeti Bank | Held (23 September) | 6.50% |
| Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye | Raised to 46% (17 April); held (19 June); cut to 43% (24 July); cut to 40.5% (11 September) | 40.5% |
Source: European Central Bank, Monetary policy decisions (17 April 2025), 17 April 2025; European Central Bank, Monetary policy decisions (5 June 2025), 5 June 2025; European Central Bank, Monetary policy decisions (24 July 2025), 24 July 2025; European Central Bank, Monetary policy decisions (11 September 2025), 11 September 2025; Bank of England, Bank Rate reduced to 4.25% - May 2025, 8 May 2025; Bank of England, Bank Rate maintained at 4.25% - June 2025, 19 June 2025; Bank of England, Bank Rate reduced to 4% - August 2025, 7 August 2025; Bank of England, Bank Rate maintained at 4% - September 2025, 18 September 2025; Swiss National Bank, Monetary policy assessment of 19 June 2025, 19 June 2025; Swiss National Bank, Monetary policy assessment of 25 September 2025, 25 September 2025; Sveriges Riksbank, Policy rate is cut to 2 per cent, 18 June 2025; Sveriges Riksbank, Policy rate unchanged at 2 per cent, 20 August 2025; Sveriges Riksbank, Policy rate is cut to 1.75 per cent, 23 September 2025; Norges Bank, Policy rate reduced to 4.25 percent, 19 June 2025; Norges Bank, Policy rate reduced to 4 percent, 18 September 2025; Czech National Bank, CNB Board decisions (7 May 2025), 7 May 2025; Czech National Bank, Statement of the Bank Board for the press conference following the monetary policy meeting (24 September 2025), 24 September 2025; Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Press release on the Monetary Council meeting of 23 September 2025, 23 September 2025; Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, Press Release on Interest Rates (2025-24), 17 April 2025; Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, Press Release on Interest Rates (2025-37), 19 June 2025; Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, Press Release on Interest Rates (2025-41), 24 July 2025; Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, Press Release on Interest Rates (2025-47), 11 September 2025.
For Poland, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank noted in its September statement that the Polish central bank had cut its key interest rate by 25bp over the previous month.
Euro area banks: more capital, thinner margins
The ECB's supervisory statistics for significant institutions show the aggregate CET1 ratio rising to 16.12% in the second quarter of 2025, from 16.05% in the previous quarter and 15.81% a year earlier. Annualised return on equity rose to 10.11% from 9.85% in the previous quarter, matching its level a year earlier. The aggregate net interest margin eased to 1.51% from 1.53%. Across countries, CET1 ratios ranged from 13.18% in Spain to 23.71% in Latvia, and return on equity from 6.97% in France to 17.44% in Lithuania.
The aggregate NPL ratio fell to 2.22% from 2.24%, as the stock of non-performing loans declined by €2.36 billion while loans and advances rose by €57.64 billion. The household NPL ratio improved to 2.16%, but corporate segments edged the other way: the ratio for non-financial corporations was 3.50% against 3.48% in the previous quarter, for commercial real estate 4.57% against 4.50%, and for small and medium-sized enterprises 4.85% against 4.78%. The liquidity coverage ratio rose to 157.84% from 156.24%.
Significant institutions under ECB supervision: key indicators
| Indicator | A year earlier | Previous quarter | Q2 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| CET1 ratio | 15.81% | 16.05% | 16.12% |
| Annualised return on equity | 10.11% | 9.85% | 10.11% |
| Net interest margin | – | 1.53% | 1.51% |
| NPL ratio (excluding cash balances) | 2.30% | 2.24% | 2.22% |
| NPL ratio, households | 2.24% | 2.21% | 2.16% |
| NPL ratio, non-financial corporations | 3.56% | 3.48% | 3.50% |
| NPL ratio, commercial real estate | 4.61% | 4.50% | 4.57% |
| NPL ratio, SMEs | 4.80% | 4.78% | 4.85% |
| Liquidity coverage ratio | – | 156.24% | 157.84% |
The EBA's wider EU/EEA sample shows the same pattern of rising capital and falling margins. Its Q2 2025 Risk Dashboard put the CET1 ratio at 16.3%, up 10bp on the quarter, and return on equity at 10.7% against 10.5% in the first quarter, with only five jurisdictions reporting a weighted average below 10%. The net interest margin narrowed to 1.58% from 1.6% in Q1 2025 and 1.68% in Q2 2024, net interest income fell to levels last observed in December 2023, and fee and commission income did not grow further. Credit costs fell: the cost of risk dropped to 48bp from 57bp, and the share of stage 2 loans declined to 9.4%. Non-performing loans totalled €372.6 billion, or 1.84% of loans, down from €375.5 billion. Credit conditions were stable rather than loosening. In the ECB's July 2025 bank lending survey, banks reported broadly unchanged credit standards for loans to firms in the second quarter, a net percentage of -1%, alongside a net tightening of 2% for housing loans and 11% for consumer credit. Demand diverged: a net 37% of banks reported higher demand for housing loans, while firms' demand rose by a net 2% only, held back by global uncertainty and trade tensions. Annual growth of adjusted loans to households rose to 2.4% in July 2025 from 2.2% in June, and growth of adjusted loans to non-financial corporations was 2.8%.
Euro area bank lending survey, net percentages of banks
| Segment | Credit standards, Q2 2025 | Expected standards, Q3 2025 | Loan demand, Q2 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loans to firms | -1% | 0% | 2% |
| Housing loans | 2% | -3% | 37% |
| Consumer credit | 11% | 4% | 2% |
Source: European Central Bank, The euro area bank lending survey - Second quarter of 2025, 22 July 2025.
Stress tests: aggregate resilience, wide dispersion
The EBA's 2025 EU-wide stress test, published on 1 August 2025, covered 64 banks from 17 countries holding 75% of EU banking assets. Under an adverse scenario in which EU real GDP falls by 6.3% between 2024 and 2027 and unemployment rises by 5.8 percentage points, the banks bore losses of €547bn and their aggregate CET1 ratio fell by 370bp, from 15.8% to 12.1%. The 2023 exercise had produced a depletion of 479bp. Credit risk losses of €394bn were the largest component, while market risk losses over the three-year horizon came to €98bn. All banks remained above their CET1 total SREP capital requirement, although one bank breached its Tier 1 leverage ratio requirement.
The ECB's own test of 96 banks, roughly 83% of euro area banking assets, gave a similar result: the aggregate CET1 ratio would fall by 4.0 percentage points to 12.0%, against an end-point of 10.4% in the 2023 test, despite projected losses of €628 billion compared with €548 billion. Loan loss provisions took 5.0 percentage points off the CET1 ratio and market risk 1.3 points, while net revenues provided a 4.8 point cushion. The ECB cautioned that the sustainability of higher profits remains uncertain and may differ across banks, and the results serve as the starting point for Pillar 2 guidance.
2025 EU-wide stress test: selected banks, transitional CET1 ratio
| Bank | End-2024 (CRR3 restated) | End-2027, adverse scenario | Change (bp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Landesbank Baden-Württemberg | 16.9% | 6.8% | -1003 |
| Crédit Agricole | 17.8% | 11.0% | -677 |
| Danske Bank | 18.0% | 13.6% | -448 |
| Société Générale | 12.7% | 8.8% | -396 |
| Deutsche Bank | 14.0% | 10.2% | -378 |
| ING | 13.7% | 10.6% | -308 |
| Nordea | 15.5% | 12.6% | -290 |
| BNP Paribas | 12.3% | 9.5% | -279 |
| Santander | 12.8% | 10.9% | -187 |
| Intesa Sanpaolo | 12.6% | 12.0% | -62 |
| DNB | 19.1% | 19.2% | +11 |
| Bank Pekao | 16.1% | 17.1% | +106 |
Source: European Banking Authority, 2025 EU-wide stress test - Results, 1 August 2025.
The aggregate result masks a wide spread between banks. Landesbank Baden-Württemberg's ratio fell by 1003bp to 6.8%, while DNB and Bank Pekao ended the adverse scenario above their starting ratios. A low starting ratio did not mean a large fall: Intesa Sanpaolo began at 12.6% and lost 62bp, whereas Crédit Agricole began at 17.8% and lost 677bp.
United Kingdom: gradual cuts, steady buffers
The Monetary Policy Committee cut Bank Rate to 4.25% at its meeting ending on 7 May 2025, by a 5–4 vote in which two members preferred a cut to 4% and two preferred no change. It held in June by 6–3, with three members voting for a cut. It cut to 4% at its meeting ending on 6 August 2025, again by 5–4, and held at 4% in September by 7–2. CPI inflation was 3.8% in August, and in August the Committee had forecast a peak of 4.0% in September. In September the Committee also voted, by 7–2, to reduce its stock of gilts held for monetary policy purposes by £70 billion over the next 12 months, to £488 billion.
The Financial Policy Committee's July 2025 Financial Stability Report kept the UK countercyclical capital buffer at its neutral setting of 2%. Major UK banks' CET1 ratio was 14.4% in 2025 Q1, against 14.8% at the time of the November 2024 report, and their three-month average liquidity coverage ratio was 153% in May. The FPC said banks had been able to earn their cost of capital, with aggregate price-to-book ratios above 1, and that it would refresh its assessment of the overall level of capital requirements in its next report.
UK banking-sector resilience indicators
| Indicator | November 2024 FSR | July 2025 FSR (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| CET1 ratio, major UK banks | 14.8% | 14.4% (Q1) |
| CET1 ratio, small and medium-sized UK banks | 18.1% | 18.3% (Q1) |
| Liquidity coverage ratio, major UK banks | 151% | 153% (May) |
| Liquidity coverage ratio, small and medium-sized UK banks | 269% | 285% (May) |
| Stage 2 loans, major UK banks | 9.7% | 9.7% (Q1) |
| Provisions as a share of lending, major UK banks | 0.91% | 0.90% (Q1) |
Source: Bank of England, Financial Stability Report - July 2025, 9 July 2025.
Business credit picked up into the summer. Borrowing by large businesses grew by 8.0% year on year in July 2025 and by SMEs by 0.9%, the highest SME rate since August 2021, while net mortgage borrowing eased to £4.5 billion. The effective rate on newly drawn mortgages fell for a fifth consecutive month to 4.28%, against 3.88% on the outstanding stock. HSBC's first-half profit before tax fell by $5.7bn to $15.8bn, mainly because of $2.1bn of dilution and impairment losses on its associate Bank of Communications; annualised return on tangible equity was 14.7%, or 18.2% excluding notable items. Its CET1 ratio was 14.6% and it planned a share buy-back of up to $3bn. Barclays reported a first-half return on tangible equity of 13.2%, profit before tax of £5.2bn and a CET1 ratio of 14.0%, with a loan loss rate of 52bp against 45bp a year earlier.
Switzerland: zero rates and the UBS capital debate
The Swiss National Bank lowered its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0% on 19 June 2025, after inflation fell to -0.1% in May. It left the rate at 0% on 25 September, by which time inflation had risen to 0.2% in August. GDP expanded by just 0.5% in the second quarter, and the central bank said the outlook had deteriorated because of significantly higher US tariffs.
In its Financial Stability Report 2025, the SNB said domestically focused banks' profitability declined in 2024 on lower net interest income, while their capital ratios stayed broadly stable and well above requirements, and that the sectoral countercyclical capital buffer is set at its legal maximum.
The SNB said UBS already meets the fully applied too-big-to-fail capital requirements that apply from 2030, and supported further measures proposed by the Federal Council to address weaknesses in parent-bank capitalisation. On 6 June 2025 the Federal Council proposed that systemically important banks fully deduct the carrying value of foreign subsidiaries from the parent bank's CET1 capital, with consultations to run in stages from the autumn. UBS reported second-quarter net profit of $2.4bn, a CET1 capital ratio of 14.4% and a CET1 leverage ratio of 4.4%, and planned buy-backs of up to $2.0bn in the second half.
Nordic countries: easing as returns soften
The Riksbank cut its policy rate to 2% on 18 June 2025, held on 20 August after inflation rose more than expected, and cut to 1.75% on 23 September, saying the rate was expected to stay at that level for some time if the outlook held. Norges Bank cut from 4.5% to 4.25% in June and to 4% in September, while judging that a somewhat higher policy rate would be needed ahead than it had expected in June.
Nordic bank returns remained high but drifted lower. EBA data show return on equity of 13.2% in Sweden in June 2025 against 14.8% a year earlier, 12.0% in Denmark against 12.6%, 13.4% in Finland against 15.4%, and 14.4% in Norway against 14.6%. Asset quality stayed strong, with NPL ratios of 0.3% in Sweden, 0.9% in Norway and 1.2% in both Denmark and Finland in June 2025. In the EBA stress test, DNB's CET1 ratio ended the adverse scenario 11bp above its starting point, while Nordea lost 290bp and Danske Bank 448bp.
Central and eastern Europe and Turkey
The Czech National Bank's 7 May 2025 cut to 3.50% took effect on 9 May, and on 24 September the Bank Board kept the rate at 3.5% with all seven members in favour. Headline inflation fell from 2.9% in June to 2.5% in August, with core inflation at 2.8%, and the CNB noted that credit growth is gradually increasing. The Magyar Nemzeti Bank kept its base rate at 6.50% on 23 September.
Banking systems in the region were more profitable than the EU/EEA average. Return on equity in June 2025 was 19.2% in Poland, 18.6% in Romania, 17.7% in Hungary and 16.3% in the Czech Republic, against an EU/EEA figure of 10.7%. NPL ratios were higher in Poland, at 3.7%, and in Romania, at 3.3% against 2.8% a year earlier, than in the Czech Republic, at 1.1%.
Turkey's central bank raised its one-week repo rate from 42.5% to 46% on 17 April 2025 and held it at 46% on 19 June. It then began to ease, cutting the rate from 46% to 43% on 24 July and from 43% to 40.5% on 11 September. In September it said the tight monetary stance would be maintained until price stability is achieved.
Large banks: first-half results
Several large European banks reported strong first-half earnings, with Deutsche Bank's profit before tax more than doubling to €5.3 billion and UniCredit's return on tangible equity reaching 21.3%. BNP Paribas' second-quarter net income fell 4.0% to €3,258m while revenues rose 2.5% to €12,581m; its CET1 ratio was 12.5% and it expects 2025 net income above €12.2bn.
Selected large European banks: latest results
| Bank | Period | Profit | Return | CET1 ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSBC | 1H25 | Profit before tax $15.8bn | RoTE 14.7% (18.2% excluding notable items) | 14.6% |
| Barclays | H125 | Profit before tax £5.2bn | RoTE 13.2% | 14.0% |
| UBS | 2Q25 | Net profit $2.4bn | Underlying RoCET1 15.3% | 14.4% |
| Deutsche Bank | First half of 2025 | Profit before tax €5.3bn | RoTE 11.0% | 14.2% |
| UniCredit | 1H25 | Net profit €6.1bn | RoTE 21.3% | 16.2% (pro forma) |
| Santander | First half of 2025 | Attributable profit €6,833m | RoTE 16% (post-AT1) | 13% |
| BNP Paribas | 2Q25 | Net income €3,258m | – | 12.5% |
Source: HSBC Holdings plc, 2025 Interim results (media release), 30 July 2025; Barclays PLC, Barclays PLC Interim Results Announcement 30 June 2025, 29 July 2025; UBS Group AG, UBS's second-quarter 2025 results (media release), 30 July 2025; Deutsche Bank AG, Deutsche Bank more than doubles first half 2025 profit before tax to € 5.3 billion, 24 July 2025; UniCredit S.p.A., UniCredit: 2Q25 and 1H25 Group results (press release), 23 July 2025; Banco Santander, S.A., 2Q 2025 financial results (press release), 30 July 2025; BNP Paribas, Second quarter 2025 results (press release), 24 July 2025.
Capital returns stayed generous: HSBC planned a buy-back of up to $3bn, Barclays announced £1.4bn of distributions for the first half and UBS planned up to $2.0bn of repurchases in the second half.
Regulation: Europe's rulebooks diverge
Most Basel III requirements entered into force in the EU on 1 January 2025. On 12 June 2025, however, the European Commission adopted a delegated act that postpones the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book by a further year, to 1 January 2027, subject to three months of scrutiny by the European Parliament and Council. Switzerland is moving the other way: the Federal Council has proposed tighter capital rules for systemically important banks with foreign subsidiaries.
Cross-country comparison
European banking monitor: policy rates and EBA system indicators
| Country | Policy rate set at last decision on or before 25 September 2025 | NPL ratio, June 2025 | Return on equity, June 2025 | Return on equity, June 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 2.00% (ECB) | 1.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% |
| France | 2.00% (ECB) | 2.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% |
| Spain | 2.00% (ECB) | 2.6% | 15.1% | 14.2% |
| Italy | 2.00% (ECB) | 2.3% | 16.4% | 15.5% |
| Netherlands | 2.00% (ECB) | 1.4% | 10.4% | 12.2% |
| Austria | 2.00% (ECB) | 2.3% | 9.2% | 13.1% |
| Greece | 2.00% (ECB) | 2.7% | 13.6% | 14.6% |
| Ireland | 2.00% (ECB) | 1.3% | 10.0% | 12.9% |
| Finland | 2.00% (ECB) | 1.2% | 13.4% | 15.4% |
| Sweden | 1.75% | 0.3% | 13.2% | 14.8% |
| Denmark | Not covered | 1.2% | 12.0% | 12.6% |
| Norway | 4% | 0.9% | 14.4% | 14.6% |
| Poland | Not covered | 3.7% | 19.2% | 17.9% |
| Czech Republic | 3.5% | 1.1% | 16.3% | 14.9% |
| Hungary | 6.50% | 2.6% | 17.7% | 21.8% |
| Romania | Not covered | 3.3% | 18.6% | 21.8% |
| EU/EEA aggregate | Not applicable | 1.8% | 10.7% | 10.9% |
Source: European Central Bank, Monetary policy decisions (11 September 2025), 11 September 2025; European Banking Authority, Risk Dashboard - Q2 2025 (data as of Q2 2025), 24 September 2025; Sveriges Riksbank, Policy rate is cut to 1.75 per cent, 23 September 2025; Norges Bank, Policy rate reduced to 4 percent, 18 September 2025; Czech National Bank, Statement of the Bank Board for the press conference following the monetary policy meeting (24 September 2025), 24 September 2025; Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Press release on the Monetary Council meeting of 23 September 2025, 23 September 2025.
Return on equity in June 2025 ranged from 7.0% in France and 7.3% in Germany to 19.2% in Poland, with Italy at 16.4% and Spain at 15.1%. Returns fell over the year in Austria, Ireland, the Netherlands, Greece, Hungary, Romania and the Nordic systems, while they rose in Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Poland and the Czech Republic. Among the systems shown, asset quality was strongest in Sweden, with an NPL ratio of 0.3%, and weakest in Poland, at 3.7%.
Outlook risks
The main risk for euro area banks is further margin compression. The EBA's net interest margin of 1.58% and the ECB's May 2025 warning of persistent downside risks to profitability from lower net interest income point to weaker income if lending volumes do not offset lower rates. Corporate asset quality is the second risk: NPL ratios for commercial real estate and SME loans at significant institutions edged up to 4.57% and 4.85%, and banks cited global uncertainty and trade tensions as a drag on firms' loan demand. In the United Kingdom, CPI inflation of 3.8% in August and a 7–2 vote in September leave the timing of further cuts uncertain. In Switzerland, the capital treatment of foreign subsidiaries remains the central issue for UBS.
What to watch
- 1 October 2025: the Riksbank's cut to 1.75% takes effect.
- 27 October 2025: UniCredit's Board is scheduled to approve its 3Q25 results.
- HSBC's third-quarter 2025 results: the bank expects its share buy-back of up to $3bn to be complete by then.
- November 2025: Norges Bank's monetary policy decision, followed by a press conference.
- Autumn 2025: the Swiss Federal Council's too-big-to-fail amendments go to consultation in stages.
- The Bank of England's next Financial Stability Report: the FPC's update on the overall level of capital requirements.
- 1 January 2027: the EU application date for the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book, after Parliament and Council scrutiny of the delegated act.
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