Coverage: Q3 2026 · Information to 13 October 2026
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TGB Quarterly Regional Banking Monitor · 13 October 2026
South Africa raised its policy rate and Nigeria lowered its own, while Ghana, Kenya, Uganda and the BCEAO held, and reported bad-loan ratios fell in Kenya and Ghana.
The desk view
Sub-Saharan Africa's central banks did not move together in the third quarter. The South African Reserve Bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% on 23 September 2026, citing a large, negative and persistent global supply shock, and revised up its Brent crude oil assumptions. The Central Bank of Nigeria set its rate at 23%, against 26.5% at its July meeting. The central banks of Ghana, Kenya and Uganda and the BCEAO left rates unchanged. Asset quality improved where it was reported, with Kenya's gross NPL ratio at 13.9% and Ghana's at 15.7%. FirstRand's earnings were cut by a UK customer-redress provision, while Standard Bank reported a return on equity of 19.8%. The quarter therefore combined lower NPL ratios in Kenya and Ghana with policy rates that moved in different directions across the region.
The regional picture
Three directions for policy
The South African Reserve Bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% on 23 September 2026. The Central Bank of Nigeria reset its Monetary Policy Rate at 23% at a meeting on 21 and 22 September 2026, having retained it at 26.5% in July. The Bank of Tanzania raised its Central Bank Rate to 6.25% from 5.75% for the quarter ending September 2026. Four other authorities left their rates unchanged: the Bank of Ghana at 14.0%, the Central Bank of Kenya at 8.75%, the Bank of Uganda at 9.75% and the BCEAO at 3.00%. Rates therefore moved in opposite directions across the region.
Inflation readings span a wide range
South Africa's annual CPI inflation was 4.4% in August 2026, up from 4.3% in July. Ghana's headline inflation rose to 5.0% in August 2026 from 4.6%. Kenya's overall inflation was 6.8% in September 2026, up from 6.6%. The Bank of Uganda said inflation remained below its 5% target. Union-wide inflation in the BCEAO area was 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026, after -0.2% in the first. The authorities' latest published readings thus ran from close to zero in the WAEMU to nearly 7% in Kenya.
NPL ratios fall in Kenya and Ghana, credit costs mixed in South Africa
Kenya's gross NPL ratio was 13.9% in September 2026, down from 17.6% in August 2025. Ghana's banking system NPL ratio declined to 15.7% in August 2026 from 20.8% a year earlier. Equity Group's NPL ratio improved to 9.5% from 13.7%. In South Africa, Absa's credit loss ratio improved to 94 basis points from 100 basis points, while Nedbank's credit loss ratio rose to 0.95 from 0.81. Reported NPL ratios in Kenya and Ghana therefore fell markedly, while South African lenders showed credit costs moving in both directions.