Research Note
Maya Bank and GoTyme captured mass-market deposits in 2025 as the BSP paused new digital bank licences
Maya's deposits rose 72% to about ₱68 billion in 2025 and GoTyme reported more than ₱43 billion in customer deposits, while digital banks held 0.5% of Philippine banking assets and the BSP paused new licensing.
The 2026 banking year ahead: lower rates, Basel implementation and AI at scale define the key strategic themes
US bank margins reached 3.39% in late 2025, but central banks held rates in March as Brent passed $100. US capital and stress-test proposals would cut the largest banks' CET1 requirements by 4.8%, and over 85% of large ECB-supervised banks use AI.
Global trade finance came under margin pressure in 2025 as geopolitical and Red Sea disruption persisted
Standard Chartered's Trade & Working Capital income fell 1% to $1,202m in 2025 on lower average volumes and margin compression, while Egypt's Suez Canal receipts fell 45.5% in the fiscal year to June 2025.
Embedded finance: checkout lenders outgrow card credit as regulators move in
Klarna's gross consumer receivables rose 29.2% in 2025 and PayPal's buy now, pay later volume passed $40bn, against 3.4% growth in US revolving credit; the UK brings the product under FCA rules on 15 July 2026.
Turkey tightened FX loan limits through 2025 and eased only at the edges as the lira deposit share reached 61%
Turkey's central bank cut the monthly FX loan growth cap from 1.5% to 0.5% in 2025 and cut the eight-week cap to 0.5% in January 2026, while lira deposit-share targets were scaled back as the lira share reached 61% and KKM balances fell to $0.3bn.
Indian bank NPL ratios fell to a multi-decadal low of 2.2% in March 2025, down from 11.2% in March 2018
India's scheduled commercial banks ended March 2025 with a gross NPA ratio of 2.2%, a multi-decadal low on RBI data, against 11.2% in March 2018; write-offs did more of the work than recoveries and upgradations, and small finance banks moved the other way.
Global bank CET1 ratios stood well above Basel minimums in mid-2025 — but the distribution is unequal across regions
Among the systems reviewed, aggregate bank CET1 ratios in Q2 2025 ranged from 10.93% (core tier 1) for Chinese commercial banks to 19.9% in Hong Kong, all above the 7.0% Basel floor with buffer, while Europe's lead in risk-based capital reverses on leverage.
Southeast Asian fintech-bank competition intensified in 2025 as super-apps deepened their financial services offerings
Super-app loan books in Southeast Asia grew 65% to 76% year on year in the third quarter of 2025, against 7.70% for Indonesian bank credit and 5.6% for Malaysian loans, while banks took part as channelling partners, platform partners and virtual-bank applicants.
Gulf sukuk: Saudi riyal auctions picked up in the second half of 2025 as the Kingdom returned to dollar sukuk
Saudi riyal sukuk auctions raised SAR 25.9bn in July to October 2025 against SAR 19.6bn in the first half, while a USD 5.5bn Ijarah sukuk in September marked the Kingdom's return to dollar sukuk and Bahrain added long-term domestic sukuk.
Three of five major South African banks posted double-digit earnings growth while political friction weighed on confidence
Capitec's headline earnings rose 26%, Absa's 17% and FirstRand's normalised earnings 10%, but Standard Bank's rose 8% and Nedbank's 6%. Lower impairments drove Absa and Nedbank, while the banks said politics weighed on confidence.
Chinese bank NPL ratio eased to 1.49% in H1 2025 as the property downturn and local government debt swap continued
China's commercial bank NPL ratio ended June 2025 at 1.49%, after 1.51% in March, as provision coverage rose to 211.97%. Property investment fell 12.0% in January–July, and 1.8 trillion yuan of 2025 debt-swap bonds had been issued by June.
US bank earnings season Q2 2025 showed NIM stabilisation as the Federal Reserve paused its rate-cutting cycle
FDIC-insured banks' net interest margin rose 1bp to 3.26% in Q2 2025 as funding costs eased and asset yields held, while the Fed kept rates at 4.25%-4.50%. Large-bank margins were mixed, from a 4bp rise at Citigroup to a 15bp fall at JPMorgan Chase.