Coverage: weekly note · Information to 10 February 2026
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TGB Weekly Research Note · 10 February 2026
The central bank kept cutting the growth cap on foreign currency loans, while easing was limited to unwinding FX-protected deposits, lira deposit-share targets and reserve requirements on longer-dated foreign funding.
The desk view
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) tightened, rather than eased, its limits on foreign currency lending in 2025. The monthly cap fell from 1.5% to 0.5%, exemptions were narrowed, and on 31 January 2026 the eight-week cap was cut to 0.5% from 1%. The relaxation came elsewhere: the end of FX-protected deposit (KKM) accounts, lower lira deposit-share targets from October 2025 and lower reserve requirements on longer-dated foreign liabilities. The lira share of total deposits had reached 61% by December 2025. In our reading, deposit-side controls are being released while FX credit is held tight.
FX credit caps were tightened, not relaxed
On 4 January 2025 the CBRT cut the monthly growth limit for foreign currency commercial loans from 1.5% to 1%. On 1 March 2025, citing developments in foreign currency loans, it cut the limit to 0.5% and narrowed the loans exempt from it. In August 2025 the calculation period moved from four to eight weeks with limits doubled, which the CBRT presented as added flexibility; the eight-week FX limit was 1%. The Resource Utilization Support Fund (KKDF) levy on new FX loan use was raised to 1% in July 2025, after which short-term FX borrowing by firms slowed. On 31 January 2026 the CBRT cut the eight-week FX limit to 0.5% from 1% and introduced a 2% eight-week cap on consumer overdraft limits.
FX loan growth limit and related measures
| Date | Measure | FX loan limit |
|---|---|---|
| 4 January 2025 | Monthly cap cut | 1.5% to 1% |
| 1 March 2025 | Monthly cap cut; exemptions narrowed | 1% to 0.5% |
| July 2025 | KKDF levy on new FX loans raised | Levy of 1% |
| August 2025 | Eight-week period, limits doubled | 1% per eight weeks |
| 31 January 2026 | Eight-week cap cut | 1% to 0.5% |
Source: CBRT, Press release on macroprudential framework (2025-02), 4 January 2025; CBRT, Press release on macroprudential framework (2025-14), 1 March 2025; CBRT, Financial Stability Report, November 2025, 28 November 2025; CBRT, Monetary Policy for 2026, 28 December 2025; CBRT, Press release on macroprudential framework (2026-06), 31 January 2026.
The squeeze worked at home but pushed firms abroad
Domestic FX loan growth slowed from 38% in December 2023 to September 2024 to 17% in December 2024 to September 2025. Growth in external FX loans rose to 18% in December 2024 to September 2025, from 3% in December 2023 to December 2024, and firms raised net FX funding of $16.8 billion from abroad in the first nine months of 2025. The CBRT linked the rise in the corporate FX short position, which reached its 2018 level in the first half of 2025, to external FX borrowing; the rise stopped in the second half after the measures on FX borrowing. On a 13-week annualised basis, FX commercial loans grew at 5-10% against 35-40% for lira commercial loans. Between 12 December 2025 and 16 January 2026 the average four-week growth of exchange-rate-adjusted FX commercial loans was 1.1%, against 3.5% for lira commercial loans. This suggests the domestic caps bind, and that the leakage has shifted to cross-border borrowing by firms rather than FX lending by banks at home.
Where the easing came: deposits and long-term funding
The CBRT said it continued its simplification measures in 2025, the most significant being the end of KKM openings and renewals and the abolition of all KKM renewal and transition targets. With KKM openings and renewals ended for legal entities from 15 February 2025 and for real persons from 23 August 2025, the KKM share of total deposits fell below 1%. Household KKM and DDM balances fell from TRY 1,114 billion in September 2024 to TRY 274 billion in September 2025, an annual fall of 75.4%. By 12 December 2025 the KKM balance was $0.3 billion and the lira share of total deposits had reached 61%.
Household KKM and DDM balances, TRY billion
Source: CBRT, Financial Stability Report, November 2025, 28 November 2025; CBRT, Press release on macroprudential framework (2025-30), 3 May 2025; CBRT, Monetary Policy for 2026, 28 December 2025; CBRT, Press release on macroprudential framework (2025-59), 2 December 2025.
Deposit targets did not move one way. On 3 May 2025 the CBRT raised reserve requirements on FX deposits by 200 basis points across all maturities. In June 2025 it raised real-person lira share targets, adding a 0.4 percentage point monthly target for banks with shares between 60% and 65%. On 17 October 2025 it cut that target to 0.3 points and the 50-60% band's to 0.6 points, with a further reduction in December 2025. Cutting targets once the lira share had settled is the clearest sign that liraisation goals have been met. On 2 December 2025 the CBRT said it would not extend beyond the end of the year the zero reserve requirement on increases in FX liabilities of more than one year obtained directly from abroad. It cut ratios on other FX liabilities beyond one year, from 16% to 10% up to 2 years and from 5% to 0% beyond 5 years, effective 16 January 2026. The ratio on demand and up-to-1-month FX deposits fell to 30% from 32%, and precious metal accounts were aligned with FX deposits.
Reserve requirements on other FX liabilities, %
Source: CBRT, Press release on macroprudential framework (2025-59), 2 December 2025.
What this means for banks in 2026
The CBRT said it will keep a framework that prioritises lira deposits and long-term external funding in 2026, and that loan growth limits and exceptions will continue to be revised through the year. The summary of the 22 January 2026 policy meeting said additional macroprudential measures would be used in case of unanticipated developments in credit and deposit markets. For banks, FX loan books remain capped by regulation, while lira deposit pricing faces fewer administrative targets. The asymmetry looks deliberate: the KKM legacy is gone, but FX credit stays tight while disinflation continues.
What to watch
- 12 February 2026: CBRT Inflation Report
- 12 March 2026: next Monetary Policy Committee meeting
- 22 May 2026: CBRT Financial Stability Report
Primary sources: CBRT, Press release on macroprudential framework (2025-14), 1 March 2025; CBRT, Press release on macroprudential framework (2026-06), 31 January 2026; CBRT, Monetary Policy for 2026, 28 December 2025; CBRT, Press release on macroprudential framework (2025-59), 2 December 2025; CBRT, Press release on macroprudential framework (2025-02), 4 January 2025; CBRT, Financial Stability Report, November 2025, 28 November 2025; CBRT, Summary of the MPC meeting (2026-05), 29 January 2026; CBRT, Press release on macroprudential framework (2025-30), 3 May 2025.